Democracy and COVID-19 mortality in Europe

e202006073

Abstract

Background: In Europe there is a great variability in mortality by Covid-19 among different countries. While some countries, such as Greece, Belarus or Ukraine, have a mortality rate of less than 5 cases/100,000 inhabitants, other countries such as Belgium, Spain or the United Kingdom have a mortality rate of well over 50 cases/100,000 inhabitants. It is generally considered that the reason for this variability is multifactorial (including political reasons), but there are few studies that associate factors related to this variability. The objective of this work was to analyse political risk factors/markers that could explain the variability in mortality due to Covid-19 among different European countries.
Methods: This is a retrospective, multinational, ecological study based on the exploitation of the database provided by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control which collects daily information worldwide on new cases and deaths. The accumulated mortality of Covid-19 in European countries (with more than 100 deaths on 01/05/2020) was calculated up to 29/05/2020. Political variables were compiled from different sources in the countries included in the study. The variables analysed were: the democracy index and the different factors included in it, the country’s political system and the country’s corruption index. On the other hand, specific political measures implemented in the different countries were collected, such as the number of days elapsed from the notification of the first infected person to 100 infected persons, to lockdown, to the closure of schools or the cancelation of meetings. The number of people infected up to the date of lockdown was also registered. For the statistical analysis of the association between the dependent variable (mortality) and the factors studied, correlation index were calculated, and the association was studied through univariate and multivariate linear regression models.
Results: At May 1 2020, 27 European countries had at least 100 deaths. The mean mortality was 19.83 cases/100,000 inhabitants (SD 22.4) and a median of 7.95. Mortality varied from a minimum of 1.49 cases/100,000 population in Ukraine to 82.19 cases/100,000 population in Belgium. About factors analyzed both the democracy index (as well as the factors included in it), the political system (full democracy vs. no) and the corruption index were statistically associated with mortality. Also, the time until the implementation of the political measures was associated with mortality.
Conclusions: In Europe, there is a west to east (from highest to lowest) gradient in the mortality of Covid-19. Some of the observed mortality variability can be explained by political factors.