From the VUCA Paradigm to the BANI Model: Implications for Public Health

e202606034

Abstract

The VUCA model (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) has provided a useful framework for understanding public health challenges in crisis contexts. However, globalization, climate change, digitalization, and disinformation demand a new approach: the BANI model (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible). This paper adopts a conceptual and reflective review, drawing on academic literature and national and international health policy documents, to explore the applicability of the BANI model to public health. Recent examples beyond COVID-19 are analyzed, such as antimicrobial resistance, the opioid crisis, monkeypox, and heatwaves linked to climate change. Furthermore, public policies aligned with BANI are highlighted, including Spain’s National Mental Health Strategy, the National Plan against Antimicrobial Resistance (PRAN), climate change and health adaptation plans, and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals. Findings suggest that BANI provides a more accurate framework to understand and address contemporary health challenges, enabling the design of adaptive and resilient strategies that integrate mental health, communication, and planetary health.